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HURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 1999

COR FOR INTENSITY AT 48-H
 
FLOYD IS NOW MOVING...AS EXPECTED...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295/12.  THIS
MOTION IS BASED ON RECON FIXES AND HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES.
THE GENERAL STEERING WHICH IS CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF FLOYD IS
GRADUALLY EVOLVING AS MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING.  THERE IS NO
REASON THEN TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK...EXCEPT FOR A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE LEFT BASED ON LATEST
GFDL AND AVN MODELS. THIS MEANS THAT FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD
BECOMES EVEN MORE VULNERABLE TO EXPERIENCE THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE EYEWALL.  ONLY SMALL DEVIATION TO THE LEFT WOULD BRING THE EYE
TO THE COAST. NO CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED FOR
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AT THIS TIME.
 
THE HURRICANE IS FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY...AND THIS IS NORMALLY
OBSERVED..ESPECIALLY WHEN THE EYE INTERACTS WITH ISLANDS.  MAXIMUM
WINDS NOW ARE ABOUT 125 KNOTS AND THE PRESSURE IS 932 MB.
ADDITIONAL FLUCTUATIONS...UP OR DOWN...IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/1500Z 25.7N  76.8W   125 KTS
12HR VT     15/0000Z 26.5N  78.5W   125 KTS
24HR VT     15/1200Z 28.0N  80.0W   125 KTS
36HR VT     16/0000Z 31.0N  81.0W   125 KTS
48HR VT     16/1200Z 34.0N  80.0W    80 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     17/1200Z 41.0N  77.0W    40 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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