HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 1999
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE REEMERGENCE OF AN
EYE...INDICATING THAT FLOYD IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. 
HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT RECONNAISSANCE DATA DO NOT SHOW ANY
INCREASE IN STRENGTH YET.  THE OUTFLOW IS IMPROVING SOMEWHAT AS THE
SMALL UPPER LOW NOTED EARLIER HAS ROTATED SOUTHWEST OF THE
HURRICANE.  THIS SHOULD BE A MORE FAVORABLE CONFIGURATION AND FLOYD
SHOULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10...AGAIN A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS MOTION.  THE PAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A DUE WEST MOTION
BUT I EXPECT THIS TO BE A TEMPORARY JOG.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE...AS
FORECAST OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SHOULD KEEP FLOYD ON A
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO.  BEYOND
THAT...THE 00Z MRF AND 12Z AVN BRING THE HURRICANE TO THE SOUTH
FLORIDA COAST...WHILE THE UKMET HAS DONE AN ABOUT FACE AND RECURVES
FLOYD WITHOUT MAKING LANDFALL AT ALL.  IT IS CLEARLY TOO SOON TO
SPECIFY WHAT PORTION OF THE COAST IS AT GREATEST RISK FOR
LANDFALL...BUT ALL INTERESTS FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE. THE TRACK
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE RELATIVE STRENGTHS OF THE DEVELOPING
RIDGE AND THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH NOW OVER THE WESTERN
U.S.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND HAS LESS OF A LEFTWARD BEND AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
 
FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/2100Z 22.7N  63.5W    95 KTS
12HR VT     12/0600Z 23.3N  65.0W    95 KTS
24HR VT     12/1800Z 23.9N  67.1W   100 KTS
36HR VT     13/0600Z 24.4N  69.2W   105 KTS
48HR VT     13/1800Z 25.0N  71.5W   110 KTS
72HR VT     14/1800Z 26.5N  77.0W   110 KTS
 
 
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