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HURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 10 1999

LAST RECON...A FEW HOURS AGO...REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 971 MB
AND DROPSONDE MEASURED WINDS OF 99 KNOTS AT 925 MB.  THE CREW ALSO
REPORTED A GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION AND A CENTER REFORMING INSIDE THE
ORIGINAL CENTER.  BASED ON RECON AND THE AVERAGE WIND ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB SAB AND KGWC....THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 80 KNOTS
AT THIS TIME.  FLOYD IS WELL ORGANIZED WITH AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND
VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE HAS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-UPPER OCEANIC TROUGH....CLEARLY OBSERVED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THIS FEATURE
IS ALSO DEPICTED BY RAOBS FROM THE CARIBBEAN WHICH REPORTED
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AT 300 MB BLOWING INTO THE HURRICANE.  IN
ADDITION...THE AVN DEVELOPS A 200 MB NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...RESULTING IN A SHEARING
ENVIRONMENT.   THEREFORE...SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...ONCE FLOYD MOVES AWAY
FROM THE UPPER-TROUGH...STRENGTHENING SHOULD START AGAIN.

INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10.  UNANIMOUSLY...DYNAMICAL MODELS TURN THE
HURRICANE ON A TRACK MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND EVEN WESTWARD.
THIS DEVIATION TO THE LEFT IS BASED ON THE DEVELOPMENT A STRONG WARM
RIDGE...WHICH IS VERY STRONG AT MID TO UPPER-LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND THE LACK OF TROUGH IN THE FORECAST ALONG EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES.  THE RELIABLE UK MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
TURNING THE HURRICANE WESTWARD AND LOCATES FLOYD NEAR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS IN THREE DAYS AND VERY NEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA IN FIVE DAYS. 
NEVERTHELESS...THE CURRENT TREND OF ALL THE LONG RANGE MODELS IS A
TRACK TOWARD THE U.S. EAST COAST INSTEAD OF A NORTHWARD TURN OVER
OPEN WATERS.  THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

GIVEN THESE TRENDS...RESIDENTS ALONG THE U.S EAST COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLOYD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/0300Z 21.1N  60.8W    80 KTS
12HR VT     11/1200Z 21.9N  61.9W    80 KTS
24HR VT     12/0000Z 22.7N  63.6W    80 KTS
36HR VT     12/1200Z 23.5N  65.5W    85 KTS
48HR VT     13/0000Z 24.0N  68.0W    95 KTS
72HR VT     14/0000Z 25.0N  73.0W   105 KTS
 
 
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