HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 08 1999
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES THIS MORNING ARE 45 AND 35 KT FROM
TAFB AND SAB...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT ON
THIS BASIS.  ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOYD LOOKS WELL-ORGANIZED...WITH
BANDING FEATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW.  SATELLITE LOCATION ESTIMATES
USING VISIBLE IMAGERY...HOWEVER...WERE 90 NM APART...AND THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS ARE NOT WELL LINKED AT THIS TIME. 
THIS ARGUES FOR ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM.  ONCE THE
INNER CORE REGION BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED INTENSIFICATION CAN
PROCEED SWIFTLY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC LOW JUST EAST OF BERMUDA...AND GIVEN THE
LARGE SIZE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS COULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO TURN FLOYD ON A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK.  EITHER THIS LOW...OR THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL CARRIBEAN...SHOULD IMPART ENOUGH OF A
NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO FLOYD TO ALLOW IT TO BYPASS THE LESSER
ANTILLES.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE LBAR STILL DOES NOT SHOW ANY RIGHTWARD TURN
AS INDICATED BY THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AND SIMPLY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
 
FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/1500Z 15.8N  50.0W    40 KTS
12HR VT     09/0000Z 16.3N  52.0W    45 KTS
24HR VT     09/1200Z 17.2N  54.5W    55 KTS
36HR VT     10/0000Z 18.3N  56.6W    65 KTS
48HR VT     10/1200Z 19.5N  58.5W    75 KTS
72HR VT     11/1200Z 21.5N  61.5W    90 KTS
 
 
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