HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 06 1999

LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BROWNSVILLE RADAR INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER HAS NOT MOVED MUCH LATELY AND IS ALSO NOT FAR FROM THE
COAST.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/01.  THE UKMET AND GFDL
MODELS SHOW A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WHILE THE NOGAPS IS SLOW
SOUTHWESTWARD.  ALL THE OTHERS MOVE THE DEPRESSION FAIRLY FAST
TOWARD THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FOR SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION AT 48 HOURS IF NOT
SOONER.

THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER WATER HAS FIZZLED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS
AND THIS REDUCES THE CHANCES OF INTENSIFICATION.  BUT TO ERR ON THE
SIDE OF CAUTION...ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED FOR A WHILE
LONGER.  

THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP...UP TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR...OVER
MEXICO...FROM THE BROWNSVILLE RADAR SO THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0300Z 24.1N  98.2W    30 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     07/1200Z 24.4N  98.4W    30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     08/0000Z 25.0N  99.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     08/1200Z 25.5N  99.7W    20 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     09/0000Z DISSIPATED
 
 
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