HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 1999
 
THERE HAS BEEN NO AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE IN EMILY SINCE ABOUT 9Z
THIS MORNING.  AT THAT TIME EMILY WAS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH.  CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS ACTIVE THIS
MORNING BUT IS ALREADY ON THE DECLINE.  I WILL HOLD EMILY AS A
DEPRESSION IN ANTICIPATION OF ANOTHER FIX/INVEST AT 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON...NOTING THAT THE SHIPS MODEL STRENGTHENS EMILY...AS IT
HAS CONSISTENTLY FOR THREE DAYS.

THE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN. 
THE BEST GUESS IS 360/10...BASED MOSTLY ON CONTINUITY.  THE
AVIATION-BASED GUIDANCE TURNS EMILY TO THE NORTHWEST...WHILE THE
NOGAPS AND UKMET TRACK THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO CINDY. 
WHILE THERE IS SOME HINT OF A MORE EASTWARD COMPONENT... THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  I AM
WAITING TO SEE WHERE...AND WHETHER...THE AIRCRAFT FINDS A CENTER
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/1500Z 19.6N  56.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     28/0000Z 21.2N  56.7W    30 KTS
24HR VT     28/1200Z 23.2N  57.7W    30 KTS
36HR VT     29/0000Z 25.0N  58.8W    30 KTS
48HR VT     29/1200Z 26.5N  60.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     30/1200Z 29.5N  63.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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