HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 26 1999
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED AROUND EMILYS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. ALSO...THE OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED EVEN
THOUGH THE OUTFLOW FROM DENNIS IS JUST TOUCHING THE SYSTEM ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE. SATELLITE T-NUMBERS ARE STILL RANGING AROUND
2.0/2.5.  THUS...THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A DEPRESSION UNTIL THERE IS
MORE CONTINUITY IN THE DEEP CONVECTION. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/08.  GIVEN THIS MOTION AND INTENSITY...THE
THREAT TO THE LESSER ANTILLES IS DIMINISHED.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...WITH A WEAK SYSTEM THE TRACK MODELS ARE BECOMING
A LITTLE DIVERGENT WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS GOING OFF TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM IN 24 HOURS.  THE OTHER TRACK
MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM OFF TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BUT DIFFER IN SPEED
OF MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER. 
 
SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL RETURNS EMILY TO TROPICAL STORM
STATUS IN 24 HOURS...AND THIS IS STILL POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM CAN
PERSIST WHILE CINDY PASSES TO THE NORTH.  BECAUSE OF THE POSSIBILITY
OF THE OUTFLOW OF DENNIS HAMPERING THE OUTFLOW OF EMILY THE SYSTEM
IS HELD AS A DEPRESSION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0300Z 17.2N  57.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     27/1200Z 18.3N  57.4W    30 KTS
24HR VT     28/0000Z 19.7N  58.1W    30 KTS
36HR VT     28/1200Z 21.0N  59.4W    30 KTS
48HR VT     29/0000Z 22.3N  60.9W    25 KTS
72HR VT     30/0000Z 25.0N  64.0W    25 KTS
 
 
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