HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  46
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 1999
 
RECON DATA AND RADAR FROM MOREHEAD CITY INDICATE THAT DENNIS IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 5 KNOTS.  THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WAS
BLOCKING DENNIS IS GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD ALLOWING THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST. WITH A NEW TROUGH APPROACHING
THE AREA...DENNIS SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH BEYOND 36
HOURS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH IN
GENERAL...MOVE THE CYCLONE INLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS DENNIS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR LESS AND THEREAFTER...OVER
EASTERN VIRGINIA.  WHILE INLAND...DENNIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINS.
 
LATEST PRESSURE FROM THE RECON WAS 986 MB WITH A 25 N MI DIAMETER
CENTER AND FLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK-WINDS OF 66 KNOTS. SATELLITE LOOPS
INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AND IS STILL DISORGANIZED.  SHIPS...GFDL AND GFDL
COUPLED MODELS STRENGTHEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  MOREOVER...GFDL AND
GFDL COUPLE FORECAST A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 972 AND 976 MB
RESPECTIVELY AT LANDFALL.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOUT
60 KNOTS NEAR LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...DENNIS IS ABOUT TO MOVE OVER THE
GULF STREAM... WHILE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX.  WINDS COULD
INCREASE A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN INDICATED.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/0900Z 33.5N  75.0W    50 KTS
12HR VT     04/1800Z 34.0N  75.5W    55 KTS
24HR VT     05/0600Z 35.0N  76.5W    60 KTS
36HR VT     05/1800Z 36.0N  77.0W    35 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     06/0600Z 37.5N  77.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     07/0600Z 40.0N  78.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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