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TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 01 1999

THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY FILLING AND THE CIRCULATION IS
SPINNING DOWN SLOWLY.  LATEST ESTIMATE OF MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS IS
50 KNOTS...BASED ON 80 PER CENT OF FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEEDS.  

AS WAS STATED EARLIER...DENNIS DOES NOT LOOK VERY TROPICAL.  COOL
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION. OVERALL THE
SYSTEM HAS THE APPEARANCE OF AN OCCLUDED LOW.  STRONGEST WINDS ARE
NOT CLOSE TO THE CENTER.  IT IS ONLY THE SPORADIC REDEVELOPMENT OF
HEAVY SHOWERS NEAR THE CENTER THAT GIVES A HINT OF TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.  BUT...SINCE DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL...THE
SYSTEM BARELY MEETS DVORAK CLASSIFICATION CRITERIA.

STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO SHEAR ANY
CONVECTION THAT TRIES TO FORM NEAR THE CENTER...AND PROHIBITS
REDEVELOPMENT.  SINCE DENNIS HAS ALREADY LOST MOST OF ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...AND REGENERATION AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE SEEMS
UNLIKELY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS DENNIS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
IN 12 HOURS.  

STEERING CURRENTS CONTINUE TO BE ALMOST NIL.  A SLOW WESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE....AND IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
GLOBAL MODELS.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/1500Z 35.5N  73.5W    50 KTS
12HR VT     02/0000Z 35.3N  74.3W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     02/1200Z 34.9N  75.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     03/0000Z 34.5N  75.8W    45 KTS...EXTRATRPPICAL
48HR VT     03/1200Z 34.0N  76.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     04/1200Z 33.0N  77.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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