HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 1999
...CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO 20 
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SOMEWHAT ENCOURAGING.  UNANIMOUSLY...ALL
MODELS ARE GRADUALLY TURNING THE HURRICANE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST ON A TRACK PARALLEL AND CLOSE TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTH CAROLINA COASTS.  THE UK MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING
THE HURRICANE OUT TO SEA...EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
THE GFDL IS THE MOST CONSERVATIVE...FORECASTING DENNIS OVER THE
SOUTH CAROLINA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER BY 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST  HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWS DOWN
THE HURRICANE CONSIDERABLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS
IS BASED ON LONG RANGE MODELS...NOGAPS...MRF AND EMCWF WHICH
MAINTAIN THE HURRICANE MEANDERING OVER NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA AND
ADJACENT WATERS...BEYOND 72 HOURS.
 
WITH THIS TRACK IN MIND...NO CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE
NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.   HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OR AN
ACCELERATION WILL REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR A
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT.
 
THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY DROPPING AND SATELLITE CONTINUES
TO SHOW AN IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION.  HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE
STILL LACKS A WELL DEFINED INNER CORE.  OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
BRINGS DENNIS TO 100 KNOTS...BASED PRIMARILY ON SHIPS MODEL AND THE
FACT THAT BOTH THE GDFL AND THE GFDL COUPLED MODELS FORECAST A
PRESSURE DROP TO BETWEEN 920 AND 940 RESPECTIVELY.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/2100Z 28.0N  77.6W    90 KTS
12HR VT     29/0600Z 28.6N  78.0W    95 KTS
24HR VT     29/1800Z 29.8N  78.5W   100 KTS
36HR VT     30/0600Z 31.0N  78.7W   100 KTS
48HR VT     30/1800Z 32.0N  78.5W   100 KTS
72HR VT     31/1800Z 33.5N  78.0W   100 KTS
 
 
NNNN