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HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 1999

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
DENNIS IS FINALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE THE SHEAR APPEARS
TO BE RELAXING BUT A MID-TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH...CENTERED OVER WESTERN
CUBA...IS STILL INTERFERING WITH THE OUTFLOW OF DENNIS.  THE CENTER
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THE OUTFLOW IS NOW IN ALL
QUADRANTS. CONSEQUENTLY T-NUMBERS ARE UP TO 5.O AND 4.5 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE.  HOWEVER...LATEST FIXES FROM THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MINIMUM PRESSURE REMAINS 988 MB
WITH A 20 NMI EYE BUT WINDS NO HIGHER THAT 70 KNOTS.  INITIAL
INTENSITY CONTINUES AT 70 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. I HAVE NO OPTION BUT
TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING BECAUSE BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS DO SO. 
ACTUALLY... THESE MODELS ARE THE ONLY TOOLS AVAILABLE TO THE
FORECASTER. 
  
DENNIS STILL MOVING 300/06.  THE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT WHILE A LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT DENNIS SHOULD
MOVE SLOWLY WHILE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-
NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS PARALLELING THE EAST FLORIDA COAST.

THIS MEANS THAT THE HURRICANE WILL BE THREATENING THE UNITED STATED
SOUTHEAST COAST FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE PRIMARILY THE GFDL.  LATEST RUN FROM THE AVN SHOWS A TRACK
A LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST BUT I WILL NOT BE
SURPRISE IF THE FORECAST SWINGS BACK TO THE RIGHT LATER ON...AS THE
MODEL HAS BEEN DOING LATELY.

AVILA 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/1500Z 25.7N  75.9W    70 KTS
12HR VT     28/0000Z 26.2N  76.7W    80 KTS
24HR VT     28/1200Z 27.0N  78.0W    90 KTS
36HR VT     29/0000Z 28.0N  79.0W    95 KTS
48HR VT     29/1200Z 29.5N  79.5W   100 KTS
72HR VT     30/1200Z 33.0N  79.5W   100 KTS
 
 
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