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HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 1999
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/06 BASED ON RECON FIXES.  THE 00Z
AVIATION MODEL SHOWS A 500 MB CUT OFF LOW DROPPING INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO IN 72 HOURS AND THIS FORCES THE BAM MODELS
TO MOVE THE HURRICANE RATHER CLOSE TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA EAST COAST
BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD.  ALL OF THE OTHER MODELS KEEP THE
HURRICANE FURTHER EAST WHICH KEEPS THE HIGHEST THREAT TO THE
CAROLINAS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY BUT SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT 24
THROUGH 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE SIGNAL OF THE AVIATION MODEL. 
THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL MODEL AND TO THE LEFT
OF THE UKMET...NOGAPS...LBAR AND HPC FORECAST.  THE FORECAST TRACK
TAKES THE HURRICANE TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS IN 24 HOURS AND
HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.
 
THE LAST RECON MISSION REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS IN THE 65
KNOT RANGE WHICH SUGGESTS THAT DENNIS MAY HAVE WEAKENED SLIGHTLY.
BUT THERE HAS BEEN AN EXCELLENT BURSTING CDO PATTERN FOR THE PAST
FEW HOURS AND THE RECON CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE WAS 988 MB...DOWN 5
MB IN 6 HOURS.  ALSO THE RECON MISSION REPORTED AN EYEWALL FORMING.
THIS IS ALL IN THE FACE OF WHAT APPEARED TO BE WESTERLY SHEAR WHICH
HAD BEEN IMPINGING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.  SO RATHER
THAN DECREASE THE WIND SPEED TO 65 KNOTS...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
KEPT AT 70 KNOTS AND THE FORECAST...AS BEFORE...IS FOR SLOW
STRENGHTENING FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL...THE ANTICIPATION OF LIGHT
VERTICAL SHEAR AND CONTINUED WARM SSTS.
 
THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS THE HIGHEST THREAT TO THE CAROLINAS...BUT
THE FORECAST TRACK IS UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO FLORIDA AND ALL
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...FROM FLORIDA THROUGH NORTH
CAROLINA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
HURRICANE.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0900Z 25.4N  75.3W    70 KTS
12HR VT     27/1800Z 25.9N  76.2W    75 KTS
24HR VT     28/0600Z 26.4N  77.1W    80 KTS
36HR VT     28/1800Z 27.4N  78.4W    85 KTS
48HR VT     29/0600Z 28.8N  79.0W    90 KTS
72HR VT     30/0600Z 33.0N  79.0W    90 KTS
 
 
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