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HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 26 1999
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF DENNIS STILL REFLECTS A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT.
THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL CUBA IS RESTRICTING THE
OUTFLOW SOMEWHAT OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  MEANWHILE...THE
OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY OVER THE
LAST 12-24 HRS WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR 23N60W. THERE HAVE BEEN NO INDICATIONS OF
FURTHER STRENGTHENING THIS EVENING WITH THE LATEST REPORTS RELAYED
FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOWING THAT THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS RISEN SLIGHTLY...TO 992 MB. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO NOAA
P-3 RADAR IMAGERY...AND TRMM SATELLITE IMAGERY...EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SUGGESTED THE FORMATION OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL
FEATURE. ALTHOUGH THESE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNS...THE CENTER IS MORE 
INVOLVED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION THAN 24 HRS AGO. THEREFORE...WE 
WILL CALL FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING...CONTINGENT ON THE VERTICAL
SHEAR DIMINISHING...CONSISTENT WITH THE LAST ADVISORY AND IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND THE GFDL. THE TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING THE LATEST HRD ANALYSIS.  
 
THE LATEST RECON FIXES INDICATE THAT DENNIS IS DRIFTING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...USING A 12-24 HR MEAN...IS
300/05 KTS. ALTHOUGH STEERING CURRENTS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AT THIS
TIME...DENNIS SHOULD BEGIN TO RESPOND TO THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE COLD
LOW PROGED TO CUT OFF OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD PULL THE
CYCLONE MORE TO THE NORTH NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY 
AND IS MIDWAY BETWEEN NOGAPS AND THE UKMET. THE GFDL IS SOMEWHAT
TO THE LEFT OF THIS TRACK.  

AFTER DISCUSSIONS WITH THE GOVERNEMT OF THE BAHAMAS...A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR NEW PROVIDENCE...GRADN BAHAMA AND
THE BERRY ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...PRIMARILY GEORIA AND THE
CAROLINAS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
HURRICANE.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0300Z 25.0N  74.7W    70 KTS
12HR VT     27/1200Z 25.5N  75.5W    70 KTS
24HR VT     28/0000Z 26.3N  76.5W    75 KTS
36HR VT     28/1200Z 27.3N  77.5W    80 KTS
48HR VT     29/0000Z 29.0N  78.5W    85 KTS
72HR VT     30/0000Z 33.5N  79.0W    95 KTS
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