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HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 26 1999

DENNIS CONTINUES TO BE WITHIN A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT AND REALLY...IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TYPICAL HURRICANE ON SATELLITE IMAGES.  THE
ONLY SIGN OF POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING WAS A REPORT FROM THE LATEST
RECON SUGGESTING THE FORMATION OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL.  WE HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING THE POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION OF DENNIS...ASSUMING A
RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR... AS PREDICTED BY THE MODELS...BUT THE FACT
IS...THAT THE SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...
I CAN NOT IGNORE SHIPS MODEL WHICH BRINGS DENNIS TO A 95 KNOTS AND
THE GFDL THAT DROPS THE PRESSURE TO 930 MB BY 72 HOURS. 
CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAKES DENNIS A 95
KNOT-HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING MOST OF THE DAY. 
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER DENNIS NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD
DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  AS A RESULT OF THE TROUGH...DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY INDICATING A NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD TURN
BEYOND 36 HOURS.  LATEST AVN RUN IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
UK...GDFL AND LBAR MODELS.  THESE MODELS BRING DENNIS VERY CLOSE TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS BY 72 HOURS. 

ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/2100Z 24.5N  74.1W    70 KTS
12HR VT     27/0600Z 25.1N  75.2W    70 KTS
24HR VT     27/1800Z 26.0N  76.5W    75 KTS
36HR VT     28/0600Z 27.5N  77.5W    80 KTS
48HR VT     28/1800Z 29.5N  78.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     29/1800Z 33.5N  78.5W    95 KTS
 
 
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