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TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 25 1999

...CORRECTION TO PARAGRAPH TWO...DANNY TO DENNIS... 

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING 
IN ORGANIZATION.  THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION
AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED IN ALL QUADRANTS.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL LOW-CLOUDS MOVING AWAY FROM THE
CIRCULATION IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STORM.  EARLIER
INFORMATION FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REVEALED THAT THE CENTER
HAD GRADUALLY SHIFTED EASTWARD UNDER THE CONVECTION...INDICATING
STRENGTHENING...AND INDEED...PRESSURE DROPPED TO 1000 MB AND WINDS
INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A 200 MB
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM AND THIS APPEARS TO BE MATERIALIZING.
THIS PATTERN WOULD CREATE VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
INTENSIFICATION. IN FACT...BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL BRING DENNIS TO 
ABOUT 90 TO 95 KNOTS BY 72 HOURS.  SINCE THESE MODELS ARE THE BEST
GUIDANCE AVAILABLE...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A 
95-KNOT HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS.

DENNIS HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE WHILE REORGANIZING.  HOWEVER...A SLOW
WEST-NORTHWEST GRADUAL TRACK SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. LATEST RUN FROM
GLOBAL AND TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH ALONG
THE EAST COAST WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER DENNIS NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWARD.  CONSEQUENTLY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH INDICATE THE PRIMARY THREAT IS NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. 
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/2100Z 23.1N  72.1W    55 KTS
12HR VT     26/0600Z 23.4N  72.8W    65 KTS
24HR VT     26/1800Z 24.0N  74.0W    70 KTS
36HR VT     27/0600Z 25.0N  75.0W    75 KTS
48HR VT     27/1800Z 26.5N  77.0W    80 KTS
72HR VT     28/1800Z 30.0N  78.0W    95 KTS
 
 
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