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HURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 1999
 
THE HEADING HAS SHIFTED TOWARD THE RIGHT OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BECOMING NORTH...360/7.  THIS CHANGE IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SEEN IN WV IMAGERY TO BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS MINOR WARMING OF THE CENTRAL CLOUDS.  COLDEST
TOPS ARE OCCURRING MOSTLY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AN INDICATION
OF WESTERLY SHEAR.  OBJECTIVELY DETERMINED T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING
BUT THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE SUPPORTS HOLDING THE WIND SPEED AT 120 KT
FOR ONE MORE ADVISORY.
 
LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW A DEEPER AND BROADER TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
ACCLERATE CINDY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS CLOSELY CLUSTERED...AND TAKES THE HURRICANE
INTO COOLER WATERS WHERE A TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL STATUS SHOULD
OCCUR BY 72 HOURS.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0300Z 31.9N  58.5W   120 KTS
12HR VT     29/1200Z 33.0N  58.3W   110 KTS
24HR VT     30/0000Z 34.9N  56.8W   100 KTS
36HR VT     30/1200Z 37.2N  54.0W    80 KTS
48HR VT     31/0000Z 40.0N  50.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     01/0000Z 46.0N  40.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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