HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 26 1999
 
DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH MIAMI AND SAB ARE 4.5 AND CINDY IS
LOOKING BETTER WITH TIME.  SINCE MANY HURRICANES REACH THEIR MAXIMUM
INTENSITY NEAR THEIR LATITUDE OF RECURVATURE IT APPEARS THAT CINDY
WILL BE NO EXCEPTION.  SHIPS CALL FOR A 90 KNOT MAXIMUM NEAR
RECURVATURE AND THEN A DECREASE AS IT ACCELERATES TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST.
 
THE SYSTEM IS SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE
MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE.  INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/12.  MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY UNANIMOUS ON THE RECURVATURE BETWEEN 31 AND
33N OR AN AVERAGE OF 32 DEGREES NORTH AND ONLY DISAGREE ON THE
LONGITUDE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A BLEND OF ALL THESE TRACKS BUT
RELIES MOST ON THE GFDL FOR THE RECUVATURE LONGITUDE.  A SLOW
ACCELERATION BEGINS AFTER RECURVATURE.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0300Z 26.9N  53.6W    80 KTS
12HR VT     27/1200Z 28.2N  55.0W    85 KTS
24HR VT     28/0000Z 30.0N  56.4W    90 KTS
36HR VT     28/1200Z 31.8N  57.1W    90 KTS
48HR VT     29/0000Z 33.7N  56.4W    90 KTS
72HR VT     30/0000Z 38.0N  54.0W    85 KTS
 
 
NNNN