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TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST MON AUG 23 1999
 
CINDY REMAINS IN A PARTIALLY SHEARED STATE...ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KT
UNTIL A DEFINITIVE TREND WITH REGARD TO THE SHEAR DEVELOPS.  ONCE
THE STORM MOVES WEST OF ABOUT 40W LONGITUDE...I.E. MORE INTO THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADEWIND ENVIRONMENT...THE EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.  HOWEVER BECAUSE OF OUR LIMITATIONS IN PREDICTING
INTENSITY CHANGE...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN NEAR THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
THE CENTER LOCATION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN...WITH CENTER FIXES FROM
TAFB AND SAB SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF MY ESTIMATE.  IN EITHER CASE...THE
FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED AND IS ESTIMATED AT 285/9.  THE 00Z AVN
RUN OF THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  IF THIS VERIFIES...CINDY SHOULD MAINTAIN A
GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT INCREASING SPEED DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW THIS AS WELL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON A SIMILAR TRACK TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT AT A FASTER SPEED.
 
FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/1500Z 15.5N  36.3W    50 KTS
12HR VT     24/0000Z 15.8N  37.7W    50 KTS
24HR VT     24/1200Z 16.2N  39.7W    50 KTS
36HR VT     25/0000Z 16.7N  42.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     25/1200Z 17.5N  45.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     26/1200Z 19.5N  51.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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