HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SUN AUG 22 1999
 
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
CINDY HAS BEEN SHEARED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
EXPOSED...AND LOCATED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. 
T-NUMBERS ARE NOW 4.0/3.5 FROM SAB AND MIAMI RESPECTIVELY...BUT CI
NUMBERS REMAIN AT 4.0/4.5 AS PER DEVORAK CONSTRAINTS.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 65 KNOTS AND WE WILL SEE IF THE SHEAR IS
JUST TEMPORARY.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE RECOGNIZES THE SHEAR BUT STILL
FORECASTS CINDY TO STRENGTHEN IN TIME...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/8. THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW SUGGEST
THAT THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
CINDY...THAT WAS MOVING CINDY TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE LATER FORECAST
PERIODS... IS NOT GOING TO AFFECT THE TRACK OF CINDY AS MUCH.  ALL
OF THE TRACK MODELS HAVE LESS OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND ALL 72
HOUR POSITIONS ARE NOW SOUTH OF 20 DEGREES NORTH.  THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS...AND THE 72 HOUR
FORECAST POSITION IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0900Z 14.5N  33.2W    65 KTS
12HR VT     22/1800Z 14.7N  34.5W    65 KTS
24HR VT     23/0600Z 14.9N  36.4W    70 KTS
36HR VT     23/1800Z 15.2N  38.6W    70 KTS
48HR VT     24/0600Z 15.6N  40.9W    75 KTS
72HR VT     25/0600Z 16.5N  46.0W    75 KTS
 
 
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