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HURRICANE BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 22 1999
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/07.  THE 500 MB ANTICYCLONE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE IS STILL THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE
AFFECTING THE MOTION.  THE 12Z AVIATION RUN SHOWS THIS FEATURE
RETREATING NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE AND THE TRACK MODELS RESPOND BY
MOVING BRET FURTHER WESTWARD AND INLAND IN 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES THE INITIAL MOTION FOR 12 HOURS AND THIS
BRINGS THE CENTER ACROSS PADRE ISLAND IN A FEW HOURS. RADAR
INDICATES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 15 MILE DIAMETER EYEWALL IS
ALREADY AT THE COAST.  THE FORECAST THEN CONTINUES A SLOW MOSTLY
WESTWARD MOTION FURTHER INLAND.
 
THE LATEST RECON CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE IS 946 MB SO THE INTENSITY
IS HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY AND 120 KNOTS IS STILL A GOOD NUMBER FOR
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED.  DOPPLER WINDS OF 135 KNOTS HAVE BEEN
DETECTED BY THE CORPUS CHRISTI RADAR AT ABOUT 10000 FT.
 
WE ARE CURRENTLY CALLING FOR 8 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN AND THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE INCREASED ON THE NEXT ADVISORY IF THE FORWARD SPEED SLOWS
AS FORECAST.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/2100Z 26.7N  97.1W   120 KTS
12HR VT     23/0600Z 27.3N  98.1W    75 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     23/1800Z 27.5N  99.1W    40 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     24/0600Z 27.5N 100.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     24/1800Z 27.5N 100.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     25/1800Z 27.5N 101.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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