HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 1999
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/07.  THE 12Z AVIATION MODEL RUN
SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES INFLUENCING THE
MOTION WITH AN ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED IN THE VICINITY OF NEW MEXCIO
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE TRACK MODELS HAVE ALSO CHANGED LITTLE.
THE GFDL MODEL IS THE FASTEST WITH THE CENTER AT THE COAST NEAR THE
US/MEXICO BORDER IN 24 HOURS.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE MUCH
SLOWER AND THE NOGAPS IS FARTHER SOUTH SHOWING A WEST THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN.  THE AVIATION AND BAM MODELS ALSO SHOW THE TURN
CONTINUING AROUND TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFDL BUT FASTER THAN ALL THE OTHER MODELS AND
KEEPS THE LANDFALL LOCATION NEAR THE BORDER IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
THE LATEST SURFACE PRESSURE FROM RECONNAISSANCE IS 976 MB AND THEY
REPORTED 101 KNOTS AT 850 MB JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  ALSO A
GPS DROP SHOWED A WIND MAX OF 112 KNOTS AT 900 MB IN THE EYEWALL
DECREASING TO 75 KNOTS NEAR THE SURFACE.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED AT
21Z IS INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS AND 110 KNOTS IS FORECAST IN 24
HOURS...JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.  THIS IS SIMIALR TO THE SHIPS MODEL
FORECAST AND IS BASED ON WARM SSTS...MINIMAL VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE
APPEARANCE OF A WELL DEFINED EYE ON VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW ISSUED FOR
NORTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE
HURRICANE MOVES A LITTLE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK. 

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/2100Z 24.1N  95.1W    90 KTS
12HR VT     22/0600Z 25.0N  95.5W   100 KTS
24HR VT     22/1800Z 25.7N  96.5W   110 KTS
36HR VT     23/0600Z 26.0N  97.5W    80 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     23/1800Z 25.8N  98.3W    45 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     24/1800Z 25.0N 100.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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