HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 1999
 
THE LAST FIX ON BRET FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
INDICATED 992 MB WITH FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 50-55 KT. THE SATELLITE
SIGNATURES CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB NOW AT 55 KT. THERE HAS EVEN BEEN A BRIEF HINT OF
AN EYE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SET TO 55 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 005/6. THE HURRICANE TRACK FORECAST MODELS ARE
NOW QUITE SCATTERED. CLIPER AND A98E INDICATE A CONTINUED NORTHWARD
MOTION...WITH CLIPER HAVING A LANDFALL NEAR GALVESTON TEXAS. THE
GFDL AND THE BAMS ALL SHOW A SHARP TURN TO THE LEFT...WITH THE
BAMM...BAMS... AND GDFL SHOWING A LANDFALL NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. THE
UKMET AND LBAR SHOW A MORE GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH THE
UKMET SHOWING A LANDFALL IN SOUTH TEXAS AND LBAR IN NORTHEAST
MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE
POSSIBILITIES...AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER BRET IS PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW WITH LIGHT
SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN
12 HOURS AND TO 90 KT IN 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THE SHIPS MODEL. AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS BRET HAS A TIGHT CENTRAL
CORE...SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY IT COULD STRENGTHEN FASTER THAN
FORECAST HERE.
 
WITH THE CURRENTLY NORTHERLY MOTION AND THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST...ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF BRET OVER THE WEEKEND.
 
BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/2100Z 21.3N  94.4W    55 KTS
12HR VT     21/0600Z 22.0N  94.4W    65 KTS
24HR VT     21/1800Z 22.7N  94.8W    75 KTS
36HR VT     22/0600Z 23.3N  95.5W    85 KTS
48HR VT     22/1800Z 24.0N  96.5W    90 KTS
72HR VT     23/1800Z 24.5N  98.0W    75 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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