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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 19 1999
 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE HAS INCREASED
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A 180 NM WIDE CONVECTIVE
MASS COVERING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS STILL
1007-1008 MB. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 35-45 KT WINDS 90 NM FROM THE
CENTER JUST OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ...AN AREA NOTORIOUS FOR WIND
FUNNELING. BASED ON THIS...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30
KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A DEPRESSION FOR THIS
PACKAGE.

THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN LIGHT TO NON-EXISTENT
STEERING FLOW...AND BASED ON THE RECON FIXES OF THIS MORNING AND
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON THE INITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY. NHC HURRICANE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS
THIS...AND IT IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE SAVE FOR
THE INITIAL POSITION.

THE DEPRESSION SHOWS FAIR TO GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHEAR. WITH THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTION... CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH SLOW
STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO
HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 72 HOUR...WHILE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE.
 
BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/1500Z 19.6N  94.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     20/0000Z 19.6N  94.6W    35 KTS
24HR VT     20/1200Z 19.8N  95.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     21/0000Z 20.2N  95.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     21/1200Z 20.5N  96.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     22/1200Z 21.0N  97.0W    55 KTS
 
 
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