HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS VERY
CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE
T2.5 FROM TAFB AND T2.0 FROM SAB AND AIR FORCE GLOBAL.  HOWEVER...
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH SIDE HAS DIMINISHED AND THE OVERALL BANDING
IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS SEVERAL HOURS AGO.  WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 25 DEGREES...WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE PROBABLY
STILL BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE
DEPRESSION IS STILL IMPRESSIVE AND SOME INTENSIFICATION IS STILL
LIKELY.

A CENTRAL WARM SPOT HAS ASSISTED IN FIXING THE CENTER ON IR
IMAGERY...AND THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED TO
040/5.  THE CYCLONE IS SOUTH OF THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES...WITH
THE AVN AND NOGAPS MODELS INDICATING A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDING
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  TRACK GUIDANCE
MODELS REMAIN HIGHLY DIVERGENT...WITH THE LBAR AND A98E MOVING THE
CYCLONE TO THE EAST AND THE MEDIUM BAM AND THE GFDL MOVING IT
NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT NOT AS SHARPLY AS THE GFDL TRACK.

FRANKLIN/JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0300Z 28.1N  57.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     12/1200Z 28.7N  56.4W    35 KTS
24HR VT     13/0000Z 29.4N  55.9W    40 KTS
36HR VT     13/1200Z 29.9N  56.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     14/0000Z 30.2N  56.2W    45 KTS
72HR VT     15/0000Z 30.5N  56.5W    45 KTS
 
 
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