ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI OCT 23 1998 THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LESTER HAS DECREASED MARKEDLY DURING THE LAST 6-12 HOURS...MOST LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO UPWELLING. IN FACT...BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY SCHEME THE CURRENT COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION IS INSUFFICIENT TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A HURRICANE. HOWEVER... THE CIRCULATION REMAINS INTACT AND TYPICALLY TROPICAL CYCLONES TAKE TIME TO UNWIND...A PROPERTY INCORPORATED INTO THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 65 KNOTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST WITH LESTER BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM BY 12 HOURS. LESTER HAS BEEN STATIONARY FOR THE LAST 36 HOURS BUT SATELLITE FIXES OVER THE LAST 3-6 HOURS SUGGEST THAT A SOUTH TO SOUTH- SOUTHWEST DRIFT HAS BEGUN. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY U.S. AIR FORCE AND U.S. NAVY DMSP FIXES/IMAGERY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 200/02 KNOTS. A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST DRIFT SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH A MORE WESTERLY MOTION THEREAFTER AS HIGH DEVELOPS NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. GUINEY FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 16.4N 109.1W 65 KTS 12HR VT 23/1800Z 16.3N 109.4W 60 KTS 24HR VT 24/0600Z 16.2N 110.0W 60 KTS 36HR VT 24/1800Z 16.1N 111.0W 55 KTS 48HR VT 25/0600Z 16.0N 112.5W 55 KTS 72HR VT 26/0600Z 16.0N 114.0W 50 KTS NNNN