ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT WED OCT 21 1998 LESTER APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY...WITH THE CENTER EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -60 DEG CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSES FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER...THE SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS BRANCH AND THE AIR FORCE GLOBAL WEATHER AGENCY GIVE A CONSENSUS T5.0...I.E. 90 KNOTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE IN A DAY OR SO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE QUITE CLOSE TO THOSE GIVEN BY THE STATISTICAL HURRICANE INTENSITY FORECAST SCHEME. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...INCREASED SHEAR COULD CAUSE THE WEAKENING TO BE MORE RAPID THAN SHOWN HERE. THE MOTION HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY BUT IS STILL TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST. THE TRACK PREDICTION GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE... WITH A TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES ALONG WITH THIS IDEA...MORE OR LESS. OBVIOUSLY THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT A POSSIBLE RECURVATURE...BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE TO INDICATE THAT THIS WILL OCCUR. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 16.5N 107.9W 90 KTS 12HR VT 21/1800Z 17.0N 109.3W 90 KTS 24HR VT 22/0600Z 18.0N 110.5W 90 KTS 36HR VT 22/1800Z 19.0N 111.5W 85 KTS 48HR VT 23/0600Z 20.0N 112.5W 80 KTS 72HR VT 24/0600Z 21.0N 115.0W 70 KTS NNNN