ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE SEP 08 1998 SPECIAL GOES IR CHANNEL REVEALS A SHEARED CIRCULATION EXPOSED OVER MOST OF THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. CENTER POSITION ESTIMATES FROM THIS IMAGERY IMPLY A SLOWER INITIAL MOTION THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED ...NEAR 290/4 KT. INTENSITY ESTIMATES BASED ON A DVORAK SHEAR PATTERN GIVE MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 40 KT. WITH THE SLOWER MOTION USED TO INITIALIZE THE TRACK MODELS...MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE NET MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS. EARLY ON...THERE IS AN INDICATION OF A CONTINUED SLOW WNW OR NW HEADING. THEN... THERE IS THE SUGGESTION OF A NORTHWARD TO EASTWARD DRIFT...PERHAPS AS THE FORECAST TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SIMILAR HEADING TO 6 HOURS AGO...BUT PULLS BACK THE FORECAST POINTS ALONG THAT TRACK. INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AND THIS ASSUMES THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE AND UPWELLING WILL NOT INHIBIT STRENGTHENING. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. RAPPAPORT FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0900Z 20.6N 111.9W 40 KTS 12HR VT 08/1800Z 20.8N 112.3W 45 KTS 24HR VT 09/0600Z 21.1N 112.8W 50 KTS 36HR VT 09/1800Z 21.5N 113.2W 55 KTS 48HR VT 10/0600Z 22.0N 113.7W 55 KTS 72HR VT 11/0600Z 23.0N 114.5W 55 KTS NNNN