ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU AUG 27 1998 HOWARD HAS A LARGE EYE. DEEP CONVECTIVE EXISTS ONLY OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT AND IS DECREASING. IT IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS INDICATED BY THE DECREASING DVORAK CI-NUMBERS WHICH YIELD INTENSITIES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS. THIS PACKAGE LOWERS THE INTENSITY TO 65 KNOTS...MAKING HOWARD A MINIMAL HURRICANE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/08 KNOTS. THE RIDGE NORTH OF HOWARD SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK IS EXPECTED. AS THE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECREASE...HOWARD IS FORECAST TO ATTAIN A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AS IT WILL BE STEERED BY THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS DURING THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS. GROSS FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 19.1N 126.0W 65 KTS 12HR VT 28/0600Z 19.8N 127.0W 60 KTS 24HR VT 28/1800Z 20.7N 128.6W 55 KTS 36HR VT 29/0600Z 21.5N 130.7W 45 KTS 48HR VT 29/1800Z 22.1N 132.7W 35 KTS 72HR VT 30/1800Z 23.0N 137.5W 30 KTS NNNN