ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE AUG 11 1998 SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY THIS EVENING SHOW THAT GEORGETTE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN. T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0/3.0/2.5 FROM TAFB/GLOBAL/SAB RESPECTIVELY. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KNOTS. THE OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE CONTINUES TO BE HINDERED BY THE DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS BUT LITTLE CHANGE AFTER THAT...IN LINE WITH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. GEORGETTE IS INTERACTING WITH THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED TO ABOUT 5 KNOTS AND IS CONTINUING TO TAKE ON MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT IN DIRECTION THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/05. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE BAMD...GFDL...NAVY NOGAPS AND P91 MODELS SUGGEST A SLOW FORWARD MOTION UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE WEST AND THEN AN INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION AND A MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED TRACKS AND IS SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 12.6N 111.1W 45 KTS 12HR VT 12/1200Z 13.0N 111.7W 55 KTS 24HR VT 13/0000Z 14.5N 112.4W 65 KTS 36HR VT 13/1200Z 16.7N 113.5W 65 KTS 48HR VT 14/0000Z 19.2N 115.3W 65 KTS 72HR VT 15/0000Z 24.0N 120.0W 45 KTS NNNN