ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 1998 ALTHOUGH NO EYE IS EVIDENT...KARL IS EXHIBITING A TYPICAL EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN WITH SOME BANDING FEATURES. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 75 KNOTS IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST DVORAK ANALYSES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST UNTIL THE HURRICANE REACHES COOLER SEA TEMPS...IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION IS EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 12 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING KARL. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SHOVE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE OF OPINION REGARDING THE FORWARD SPEED LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE AND CALLS FOR A MODEST ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 30.8N 51.0W 75 KTS 12HR VT 26/1200Z 32.0N 49.5W 75 KTS 24HR VT 27/0000Z 35.0N 47.0W 75 KTS 36HR VT 27/1200Z 37.0N 45.0W 70 KTS 48HR VT 28/0000Z 39.5N 42.0W 60 KTS 72HR VT 29/0000Z 44.0N 34.0W 50 KTS NNNN