ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 1998 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS UNDER THE DENSE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST...AND CURRENT DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER AND THE SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS BRANCH ARE 4.0. THUS THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 65 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST. HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HOSTILE...SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...COOLER WATERS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE WEAKENING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 12Z GFDL MODEL GUIDANCE. LATEST FIXES SHOW THAT THE MOTION IS STILL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...AT AROUND 10 KNOTS. JEANNE IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A 500 MB ANTICYCLONE...AND WILL ENCOUNTER AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW AFTER CROSSING 30N. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND SHOWS ACCELERATION TO AROUND 25 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS OR SO. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/2100Z 23.0N 41.4W 65 KTS 12HR VT 27/0600Z 24.5N 42.0W 65 KTS 24HR VT 27/1800Z 27.0N 41.5W 65 KTS 36HR VT 28/0600Z 30.0N 40.0W 65 KTS 48HR VT 28/1800Z 34.5N 37.5W 65 KTS 72HR VT 29/1800Z 40.0N 27.0W 50 KTS NNNN