ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 17 1998 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOWS THAT THE TWO PREVIOUSLY SEPARATE CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE CENTER HAVE MERGED. THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH THE EXPANSION OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THE IMPROVEMENT IN THE OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. CLOUD-DRIFT WIND DATA SUGGESTS THAT EASTERLY SHEAR IS HINDERING THE OUTFLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. REMAIN 45 KNOTS...AS WILL THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS GEORGES TO HURRICANE STATUS BY 36 HOURS...WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THIS IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL HURRICANE INTENSITY PREDICTION SCHEME...SHIPS. SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT GEORGES CONTINUES TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 275/17 KNOTS. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF GEORGES SHOULD CONTINUE STEERING THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. GEORGES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TO LESSEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE-SCALE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLIPER AND LBAR...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. GUINEY FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 11.4N 37.5W 45 KTS 12HR VT 17/1800Z 11.8N 40.1W 50 KTS 24HR VT 18/0600Z 12.3N 43.2W 60 KTS 36HR VT 18/1800Z 12.8N 46.3W 65 KTS 48HR VT 19/0600Z 13.5N 49.5W 75 KTS 72HR VT 20/0600Z 15.0N 55.0W 80 KTS NNNN