ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 08 1998 WHAT WE HAVE HERE IS A VERY POORLY ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IF THE SYSTEM HAD NOT ALREADY BEEN DESIGNATED AS A DEPRESSION...I WOULD NOT DO SO AT THIS TIME. BUOY REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS EVEN LESS WELL ORGANIZED THAN SIX HOURS AGO. WITH NO EVIDENCE OF ANY MOTION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE STATIONARY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOW WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST MOTION... DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. THE 18Z AVIATION MODEL LOCATES THE CENTER WELL SOUTH OF WHERE WE HAVE IT...BUT THE AVIATION MODEL COULD TURN OUT TO BE CORRECT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT ALONG THE SAME PATH REACHING THE TEXAS COAST IN 36 HOURS. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR CENTER. PERHAPS THIS CONVECTION WILL ORGANIZE INTO A BANDING FEATURE WITH TIME...BUT AT THE MOMENT THERE IS LITTLE ORGANIZATION AND NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. BUT THERE IS LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE VICINITY AND THE FORECAST IS FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0300Z 25.5N 94.5W 30 KTS 12HR VT 09/1200Z 25.8N 95.2W 35 KTS 24HR VT 10/0000Z 26.2N 96.4W 40 KTS 36HR VT 10/1200Z 26.8N 97.6W 45 KTS 48HR VT 11/0000Z 27.5N 99.0W 30 KTS...INLAND 72HR VT 12/0000Z 27.5N 100.5W 20 KTS...INLAND NNNN