ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON AUG 31 1998 AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATED THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FOUND A 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITH PEAK WINDS TO 43 KNOTS AT THE 1500 FT FLIGHT LEVEL. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED IMMEDIATELY TO A TROPICAL STORM. THIS IS IN FACT THE SAME SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE PAST WEEK. AT THIS TIME... THE STORM IS BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AND IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES. THE OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY RESTRICTED TO THE WEST BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND EARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE. STRENGTHENING IS ALSO CALLED FOR BY THE NUMERICAL MODELS. INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO A LACK OF GOOD CENTER FIXES. OUR BEST ESTIMATE IS 350/4. TRACK PREDICTION MODELS SHOW A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH THE STORM BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES ALONG WITH THIS REASONING. HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS AND UK MET OFFICE MODEL SUGGEST A MUCH SLOWER MOTION. IF THE ACCELERATING SCENARIO MATERIALIZES...A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TONIGHT. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/2100Z 22.5N 93.9W 35 KTS 12HR VT 01/0600Z 23.5N 94.0W 40 KTS 24HR VT 01/1800Z 25.0N 93.5W 45 KTS 36HR VT 02/0600Z 26.5N 92.0W 55 KTS 48HR VT 02/1800Z 28.5N 90.0W 65 KTS 72HR VT 03/1800Z 31.0N 86.0W 55 KTS...INLAND NNNN