ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON AUG 31 1998 AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED A 20 NMI DIAMETER EYE WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 973 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED EYE ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NOT EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY COLD CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 85 KNOTS. THE USUAL DILEMMA IS FACED CONCERNING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF DANIELLE...AS TO WHETHER IT WILL ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING...OR INCREASE THE SHEAR RESULTING IN WEAKENING. OUR INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND SUGGESTS SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING WHILE DANIELLE IS OVER WARM WATER. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/10. THE STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME STRONGER AND MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME. CURRENT TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS MIDWAY BETWEEN THE NAVY NOGAPS AND THE GFDL. MAYFIELD FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 31.5N 73.0W 85 KTS 12HR VT 01/1200Z 32.8N 71.8W 90 KTS 24HR VT 02/0000Z 34.7N 68.5W 90 KTS 36HR VT 02/1200Z 37.0N 64.5W 85 KTS 48HR VT 03/0000Z 39.5N 59.5W 80 KTS 72HR VT 04/0000Z 44.5N 48.5W 65 KTS NNNN