ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 1998 THE LATEST VORTEX DATA FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOWED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 70-KNOTS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 983 MB...AND A 20 NMI DIAMETER EYE. THIS DATA SUGGESTS THAT DANIELLE IS GOING THROUGH AN INTENSIFICATION CYCLE...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 70 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. NOAA P-3 ON-BOARD DOPPLER RADAR IMAGES AND WIND/PRESSURE PLOTS SUPPLIED BY THE HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION...HRD...INDICATE THAT THE DANIELLE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A TIGHTER MORE WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...BOTH DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS ASYMMETRIC WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. THE NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT GPS-DROPSONDE REPORTED A SST OF 26 DEG C SOUTH OF THE EYE. SST ANALYSES THROUGH 22 AUG SUGGEST THAT THIS REPRESENTS ABOUT A 4 DEG C COOLING ATTRIBUTABLE TO BONNIE. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LINES OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS DANIELLE MOVES AWAY FROM THE BONNIE/S COOL WAKE AND INTO WARMER WATERS. POSITION FIXES FROM THE AIR FORCE AND NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE GRADUAL RIGHT-HAND TURN IS UNDER WAY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 325/05 KNOTS. THE NOAA G-IV JET AIRCRAFT PERFORMED A SYNOPTIC FLOW MISSION THIS AFTERNOON TO SAMPLE THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF DANIELLE. THIS DATA INDICATES THAT THE BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD PERMIT DANIELLE TO TAKE A NORTH...THEN NORTHEASTERLY TRACK THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE THIS SCENARIO ...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...WITH A MARKED ACCELERATION BEYOND 48 HOURS. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS FAR ENOUGH WEST OF BERMUDA TO PRECLUDE ANY WATCH ISSUANCES AT THIS TIME. GUINEY FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/0300Z 28.2N 74.3W 70 KTS 12HR VT 31/1200Z 29.3N 74.5W 75 KTS 24HR VT 01/0000Z 30.9N 73.6W 80 KTS 36HR VT 01/1200Z 32.5N 72.0W 85 KTS 48HR VT 02/0000Z 34.5N 69.0W 80 KTS 72HR VT 03/0000Z 39.0N 62.0W 75 KTS NNNN