ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 1998 RECON FOUND THAT THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM IS BETTER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH A WELL DEFINED 10 N MI DIAMETER CLOSED EYE-WALL BUT THE HIGHEST SAMPLED WINDS WERE ONLY 65 TO 70 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN AND SATELLITE WIND ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 77 KNOTS. BASED ON RECON REPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 70 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. KEEPING IN MIND THAT WE HAVE LIMITED SKILLS IN PREDICTING CHANGES IN INTENSITY...I DO NOT SEE ANYTHING THAT COULD STOP THE HURRICANE FROM STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL WHICH BRINGS DANIELLE TO 100 KNOTS. INITIAL MOTION IS 300/12. DANIELLE HAS NOT TURNED YET BUT THAT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY. THE KEY PLAYER IS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CARRY DANIELLE NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. TRACK MODELS CONSISTENTLY TURN DANIELLE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND AWAY FROM THE U.S. COAST. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 25.8N 71.2W 70 KTS 12HR VT 30/0600Z 26.7N 73.0W 75 KTS 24HR VT 30/1800Z 28.0N 75.0W 80 KTS 36HR VT 31/0600Z 29.5N 75.5W 90 KTS 48HR VT 31/1800Z 31.5N 75.0W 100 KTS 72HR VT 01/1800Z 34.5N 69.5W 100 KTS NNNN