ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR HURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 1998 ...COR FOR TIME FIXES FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT BONNIE IS RIGHT ON TRACK...300/14. THERE IS NO APPARENT CHANGE IN THE BOTH CURRENT ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING BONNIE. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE HURRICANE WILL DRIVE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN... ALLOWING BONNIE TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. THE GFDL MAKES A MORE GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL BUT REFLECTING THE CONSENSUS FOR A MORE NORTHWARD TURN BEYOND 36 HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 980 MB SUGGESTING THAT STRENGTHENING IS OCCURRING. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS IMPROVING AND THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT. IN FACT...THE EYE IS BECOMING VISIBLE...AS THIS ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES BONNIE A CATEGORY 3 ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON- SCALE. AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 22.7N 70.6W 75 KTS 12HR VT 23/0000Z 23.7N 72.5W 80 KTS 24HR VT 23/1200Z 25.0N 74.5W 90 KTS 36HR VT 24/0000Z 26.0N 75.5W 100 KTS 48HR VT 24/1200Z 27.5N 76.0W 100 KTS 72HR VT 25/1200Z 29.5N 76.5W 100 KTS NNNN