ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU JUL 30 1998 ALEX HAS MAINTAINED ITS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WHILE THE OUTFLOW IS BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...T-NUMBERS REMAIN ABOUT 3.0 SO THE WINDS ARE KEPT AT 45 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. ALEX IS DEFINITIVELY BETTER ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AHEAD OF THE STORM BUT IT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS ALEX TO A 65-KNOT HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS. ON THE LONGER RANGE...4-5 DAYS... THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE IN THE AREA BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND BERMUDA. MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SAME SCENARIO. A WELL ESTABLISHED DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO HAVE A WEAKNESS ALONG 60-65 WEST. THIS PATTERN WOULD INDUCE A TRACK MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF ALEX WOULD SKIRT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IN FACT IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A LARGE TROUGH ALONG EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. IF THIS VERFIES...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 15.2N 46.9W 45 KTS 12HR VT 31/0600Z 15.6N 48.9W 50 KTS 24HR VT 31/1800Z 16.2N 51.5W 55 KTS 36HR VT 01/0600Z 17.0N 54.0W 60 KTS 48HR VT 01/1800Z 18.0N 56.0W 65 KTS 72HR VT 02/1800Z 21.0N 61.0W 65 KTS NNNN