261 
AXPZ20 KNHC 231709
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu May 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
11N86W to 12N109W to 08N123W. The ITCZ extends from 08N123W to 
beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection 
is noted from 07N to 14N between 88W and 105W. Scattered moderate
conveciton is noted from 05N to 09N between 113W and 132W and 
from 05N to 08N and W of 137W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Broad ridging persists over the eastern Pacific north of 18N and
west of 110W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure 
and lower pressure over central Mexico is giving way to moderate 
to locally fresh N to NW winds across Baja California offshore 
waters. NW swell is bringing seas of 5 to 7 ft across the Baja
California offshore waters. Meanwhile, moderate SW winds are 
noted over the northern Gulf of California, while light to gentle
winds prevail over the remainder of the Gulf. Seas are 2 to 4 ft
at the entrance of the Gulf of California and northern half, 
with seas to 2 ft across the rest of the Gulf. Elsewhere across
the Mexico offshore waters, light to gentle breezes persist. 
Seas range 4 to 6 ft along the southern Mexico offshore waters 
in SW swell. Smoke from regional agricultural fires has spread 
medium haze across the Oaxaca offshore waters near the coast and 
light haze across the rest of the Mexico offshore waters. This 
could reduce visibilities.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate 
the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the week.
Moderate to fresh NW to N winds over the Baja California 
offshore waters will continue through Mon night. Winds could
pulse to strong near Punta Eugenia at night through the weekend. 
Winds in the Gulf of California will prevail moderate to fresh 
through Sat night as low pressure temporarily deepens over the 
Colorado River Valley. Light to medium haze from smoke caused by 
agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce visibilities over the
Mexico offshore waters through Thu. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection continues to 
impact the southern Central America offshore waters and Colombia,
N of 03N between 77W and 89W. This is due in part to converging 
SW winds farther offshore associated with the monsoon trough.
Some storms could produce frequent lightning, gusty winds, and
locally rough seas. 

Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are evident south of 09N, 
with light and variable winds north of 09N. Combined seas are 5 
to 7 ft primarily in S to SW swell. Smoke from regional agricultural
fires persists across the Central America offshore waters, as 
far south as northern Costa Rica. Medium haze can be expected 
along the coast with light haze elsewhere. This could reduce 
visibilities.

For the forecast, moderate to strong thunderstorms will continue
to pulse over the offshore waters from Costa Rica to Colombia 
through Fri night. For waters south of 08N, winds will be 
moderate to fresh through Fri. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds 
will persist across the Central and South American offshore
waters from Fri night through early next week S of 08N, with 
light to gentle breezes north of 08N. Light to medium haze from 
smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce 
visibilities over portions of the Central America offshore waters
through tonight. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed north of the monsoon trough
near 13N111W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 12N to 15N between 109W and 112W. Moderate SW winds
are noted around the low. Combined seas in this area are peaking
to 6 ft.

Elsewhere, a ridge extends from 1034 mb high pressure centered 
near 37N147W, southeastward toward the Revillagigedo Islands. 
This pattern is supporting moderate to locally fresh N to NE 
winds north of the ITCZ along 07N and west of 110W. Combined 
seas are 7 to 9 ft from 07N to 20N west of 130W. South of the 
ITCZ, moderate to fresh SE winds are noted W of 130W. Gentle to 
moderate breezes and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the low pressure area will dissipate as it 
drifts northward to within 240 nm southeast of Socorro Island 
today. Winds and seas will continue to subside today as a result.
Elsewhere, the high pressure will weaken through Fri, allowing 
winds and combined seas to diminish slightly. This will continue
through early next week before the high pressure strengthens 
once again. Little change is noted over the remainder of the 
area.

$$
AReinhart