000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060911
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jun 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0905 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 114W, south of 15N, and moving westward
at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N
to 11N and between 107W and 117W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guatemala near 
14N91W to 10N110W and to 10N128W. The ITCZ stretches from 10N128W
to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is observed from 05N to 16N and east of 101W. Similar convection
is noted from 07N to 14N and west of 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad subtropical ridge positioned well west of Baja California
supports moderate to occasionally fresh NW winds across the Baja
California offshore waters, primarily south of Punta Eugenia. 
Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. North of Punta Eugenia, light to
gentle winds and seas of 6-8 ft due to NW swell. The highest 
seas are found in the far NW waters. Light to gentle winds and 
slight seas are present in the Gulf of California.

Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
Hazy conditions persist off southern and SW Mexico, including 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern 
Mexico and Central America, reducing visibility to around 5 nm at
times.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds will 
continue off Baja California through early next week. The
decaying NW swell will propagate across the offshore waters of 
Baja California through Fri, with seas building to 10 ft N of 
Punta Eugenia today, and to 6-8 ft between Cabo San Lazaro and 
Punta Eugenia on Fri. Moderate to locally fresh winds will push 
through the mountain gaps and reach the Gulf of California in the
night and morning hours during the next few days. Hazy conditions
caused by smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will continue 
offshore of SW and southern Mexico for the next couple of days, 
reducing visibility to near 5 nm at times.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough remains located farther north than its usual 
climatological position for this time of the year. This results 
in moderate to occasionally fresh SW-W winds in the offshore 
waters of Central America and Colombia, especially north of the 
equator and including the Gulf of Panama. Stronger winds are
likely near the isolated thunderstorms. SW swell produces seas 
of 6-8 ft across the area described. Light to gentle winds and 
moderate seas are evident in the Gulf of Papagayo and south of 
the equator.

Hazy conditions persist over the offshore waters of Guatemala and
El Salvador due to smoke from agricultural fires in southern 
Mexico and Central America. 

For the forecast, abundant moisture in a SW wind flow will
continue across the Central America and Colombia offshore waters
during the next several days. This will enhance the shower and 
isolated thunderstorm activity across the region. Light to gentle
winds will prevail north of 10N, while moderate to locally fresh
winds are expected south of 10N for the next few days. 
Meanwhile, hazy conditions caused by smoke from agricultural 
fires over Mexico and Central America may reduce visibilities 
mainly over the northern Central American offshore waters for the
next couple of days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1024 mb high pressure system is positioned near 32N140W and
continues to dominate the remainder of the tropical eastern
Pacific. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower 
pressures associated with a surface trough extending from 30N119W
to 24N123W support moderate to fresh northerly winds north of 
24N and west of the trough. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft due
to northerly swell. The highest seas are near 30N126W.

Farther south, moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 
6-8 ft are occurring from the ITCZ to 24N and west of 130W. 
Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are 
noted south of the monsoon trough and east of 115W. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the area while 
weakening somewhat over the next couple of days. Large NW swell 
will continue to propagate across the north waters with seas of 
10-11 ft N of 25N. Seas will subside below 8 ft late Sat. Moderate
to fresh winds and seas of 8-10 ft will continue across the 
eastern and expand into the central waters near and south of the 
monsoon trough into the weekend.

$$
Delgado