000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062135
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jun 6 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 117W, south of 15N, and moving westward
at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N
to 12N between 109W and 119W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 13N87W to 12N122W. The ITCZ
stretches from 12N122W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 14N and east of
106W. Similar convection is noted from 07N to 13N and west of
135W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A subtropical ridge centered well west of Baja California
supports moderate NW winds across the Baja California offshore
waters, primarily south of Punta Eugenia. Seas in these waters
are 5-7 ft. North of Punta Eugenia, light to gentle winds and
seas of 6-8 ft due to NW swell. The highest seas are noted in the
far NW waters. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are present
in the Gulf of California.
Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
Hazy conditions persist off southern and SW Mexico, including
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern
Mexico and Central America, reducing visibility to around 5 nm at
times.
For the forecast, gentle to moderate NW-N winds will continue
off Baja California through early next week. The decaying NW
swell will propagate across the offshore waters of Baja
California through Fri, with seas peaking to 10 ft N of Punta
Eugenia tonight, and to 6-8 ft between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta
Eugenia on Fri. Moderate to fresh winds will push through the
mountain gaps and reach the Gulf of California in the night and
morning hours during the next few days. Hazy conditions caused by
smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will continue offshore
of SW and southern Mexico for the next couple of days, reducing
visibility to near 5 nm at times.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
The monsoon trough remains located farther north than its usual
climatological position for this time of the year. This results
in moderate SW-W winds in the offshore waters of Central America.
Stronger winds are likely near the convection activity in the
vicinity of the monsoon trough. SW swell produces seas of 6-8 ft
across the area described. Light to gentle winds and moderate
seas are evident in the Gulf of Papagayo and south of the
equator.
Hazy conditions persist over the offshore waters of Guatemala and
El Salvador due to smoke from agricultural fires in southern
Mexico and Central America.
For the forecast, abundant moisture in a SW wind flow will
continue across the Central America and Colombia offshore waters
during the next several days. This will continue to enhance the
convection across the region. Light to gentle winds will prevail
north of 10N, while moderate to fresh winds are expected to pulse south
of 10N for the next few days. Meanwhile, hazy conditions caused
by smoke from agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America
may reduce visibilities mainly over the northern Central American
offshore waters for the next couple of days.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1022 mb high pressure system is centered near 33N137W and
continues to dominate the remainder of the tropical eastern
Pacific. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower
pressures associated with a surface trough extending from 30N119W
to 24N123W support moderate to fresh northerly winds north of
24N and west of the trough. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft due
to northerly swell. The highest seas are near 30N126W.
Farther south, moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are
occurring from the ITCZ to 24N and west of 130W. Moderate to
fresh southerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are also noted south of
the monsoon trough and east of 115W. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the area while
weakening slowly over the next couple of days. Large NW swell
will continue to propagate across the north waters with seas of
8-10 ft N of 25N. Seas will subside below 8 ft late Sat.
Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 8-9 ft will continue across
the eastern EPAC and expand into the central waters near and
south of the monsoon trough into the weekend.
$$
ERA
