630
AXNT20 KNHC 062312
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jun 7 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...HEAVY RAINFALL IN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA...
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is from 15N to
27N between 69W-85W. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow spans
the areas that are between 50W in the Atlantic Ocean and 90W in
the Gulf of Mexico. Expect significant convection through Friday.
The hazards to land are: dangerous lightning, heavy rain, and
gusty winds. The soils remain saturated therefore, it is possible
that more heavy rain may lead to flash flooding and mudslides,
especially in north central Hispaniola for tonight. The rainfall
for Hispaniola and Cuba will be influenced heavily by daytime
heating, the local sea breezes, and the mountain upslope lifting.
Abundant moisture will continue to cover most of Cuba and the
Cayman Islands tonight, as another upper level trough reaches
Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico. Please, refer to bulletins and
forecasts that are from your local weather forecast office for
detailed information.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W, from 11N
southward, moving westward about 10 kt.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W, from 11N
southward, moving westward about 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N-09N between 46W-49W.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W, from 13N
southward, moving westward about 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 300 nm on either side of the tropical wave,
inland in South America. No significant deep convective
precipitation is in the Caribbean Sea.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough from 11N16W to 06N38W. The ITCZ continues from
07N40W to 08N59W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of
the monsoon trough mainly E of 30W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
Surface ridging extends across the basin. A 1010 mb low is
centered near 30N90W, with trough extending to the W of the low.
Scattered moderate convection prevails N of 27N between 88W-91W.
Moderate to fresh NE winds are pulsing over the eastern Bay of
Campeche, associated with the diurnal thermal trough. Light to
gentle anticyclonic flow prevails elsewhere across the basin with
slight seas. The convective activity described above over
Hispaniola and Cuba is also affecting portions of the Straits of
Florida, S of 25N and E of 84W. Gusty winds and higher seas could
be expected with this activity.
For the forecast, weak Atlantic high pressure pattern will
support mainly gentle to moderate winds through the next several
days. Winds will pulse to fresh near the Yucatan Peninsula during
the late afternoon and evening hours. Hazy conditions due to
agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue
for at least the next couple of days, reducing visibility to
around 3 nm at times, mainly over the southwestern Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information
about the heavy rainfall event in Hispaniola and in Cuba.
Moderate or slower winds, and slight to moderate seas span the
entire area. The monsoon trough extends from the coast of
Colombia close to 11N74W, beyond the central coast of Nicaragua.
Scattered to numerous moderate convection prevails inland over
northern Colombia and Central America in the vicinity of the
trough and S of 12N.
For the forecast, weak high pressure extends across the western
Atlantic along 30N. A deep layered upper-level trough from the W
Atlantic to Puerto Rico will shift E-NE across the Atlantic, with
associated showers and thunderstorms shifting from the north-
central basin across the NE Caribbean and into the Atlantic
through tonight, ahead of the trough. A second upper trough from
Florida to the NW Caribbean will support active thunderstorms
across the NW basin through the weekend. Fresh to strong trade
winds will return to SE portions of the basin this evening through
Fri then gradually shift across south-central portions through
the weekend, as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic
along 25N.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.
Some of the convection that is currently affecting the NW
Caribbean and Straits of Florida, is also extending across the W
Atlantic, mainly over the central Bahamas. A 1014 mb surface low
is analyzed E of this activity near 25N65W, with trough extending
from the low to the Windward Passage. To the E, another 1014 mb
low is analyzed near 29N47W. A trough extends from this low to
19N60W. SCattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the low and
trough. A cold front extends from 31N17W to 28N37W with no
significant activity at this time.
Mostly moderate seas cover the entire area in general. The
comparatively highest sea heights, range from 4 to 6 ft. Fresh
NE winds are from 14N to 21N from 25W eastward. Mostly moderate or
slower winds are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean.
For the forecast, the low and frontal trough to the NW coast of
Haiti, will drift eastward and weaken through tonight. The deep-
layered upper trough across the W Atlantic extending from near
Bermuda to Puerto Rico will shift E-NE across the region through
Fri, maintaining active thunderstorms E of the upper trough. A
second upper trough from Florida to the NW Caribbean will support
active thunderstorms from central Cuba northeastward across the
Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic S of 25N through Fri, then shift
slowly eastward over the weekend. Weak high pressure will begin to
build across the basin tonight, then shift slowly E-NE through
the weekend. A weak front will move into the far NW waters Sat and
stall there then lift north of the area Sun.
$$
ERA
