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Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
900 PM MDT Sat Oct 07 2023
The satellite presentation of Lidia has improved since yesterday.
Recent AMSR2 and SSMIS passive microwave images show signs of a
mid-level eye feature in the 89 GHz channel. However, the vortex
still appears tilted, with the low-level 37 GHz center situated to
the northeast of the mid-level center. While the upper-level outflow
is still restricted on the eastern side of the storm, the center has
been located deeper underneath the cold convective canopy today. As
a result, the satellite intensity estimates have risen, but they
seem a little high based on the earlier ASCAT data. The initial
intensity is raised to 60 kt, which is in best agreement with recent
UW-CIMSS SATCON and D-PRINT estimates.
The moderate easterly shear over Lidia is forecast to persist for
another 12-24 h, then weaken into early next week. The weaker
shear should allow Lidia to become more vertically aligned and
strengthen within a diffluent upper-level environment while moving
over very warm waters. Most of the intensity guidance shows
strengthening after 24 h while Lidia moves toward the coast of
Mexico. The regional hurricane models (HAFS, HWRF, HMON) show some
potential for significant intensification, and overall it appears
more likely that Lidia reaches the coast at hurricane strength early
next week. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast has been raised
at 24-72 h, though it still lies below the IVCN and HCCA aids. Given
the large spread noted in the intensity guidance, future adjustments
are certainly possible.
Lidia has not moved much since the last advisory, and its estimated
initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/3 kt. The storm is
expected to slowly turn northward on Sunday while moving around the
western periphery of a mid-level ridge. Then, the southwesterly flow
ahead of an upper-level trough to the north will cause Lidia to
accelerate northeastward toward the west-central coast of Mexico.
The largest spread in the track models is related to the forward
speed of Lidia while it interacts with the trough. The GFS brings
Lidia inland over mainland Mexico about 24 h earlier than the rest
of the global models, and thus there is more uncertainty in the
longer-range track forecast. For now, the NHC track follows a
consensus approach and lies between the TVCE and HCCA aids, similar
to but slightly faster than the previous prediction.
Key Messages:
1. Lidia is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane while it moves
toward the west-central coast of Mexico early next week. There is an
increasing risk of strong winds and heavy rain for the Islas Marias
and portions of the west-central coast of Mexico. Interests in these
locations should closely monitor the latest forecast updates, as
watches could be required as early as Sunday.
2. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next several days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0300Z 16.1N 112.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 16.8N 112.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 17.6N 112.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 18.3N 111.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 18.9N 110.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 19.8N 108.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 21.1N 105.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 24.0N 101.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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