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Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
200 AM PDT Sat Sep 09 2023
This morning's satellite presentation consists of a deteriorating
cloud pattern with what remains of the deep convection confined to
the western half of the cyclone. A blend of the subjective and
objective intensity estimates yield an initial intensity of 60 kt
for this advisory.
Jova is forecast to spin down slowly during the next few days,
while traversing decreasing oceanic surface temperatures and moving
into a high, statically stable surrounding environment. Most models
indicate that Jova will lose its deep convection and become a
remnant low in 60 hours, which is shown in the NHC intensity
forecast.
The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, 300/11 kt.
The NHC forecast track philosophy remains unchanged. Jova should
continue to move generally toward that northwest within the
southeasterly mid-tropospheric flow produced by subtropical high
pressure that stretches from the southwestern U.S. across most of
the eastern Pacific. As Jova sheds its associated deep convection
and degenerates to a vertically shallow cyclone, Jova is expected to
decrease in forward speed and turn toward the west, and
west-southwest within the easterly tradewind flow through
dissipation.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0900Z 21.5N 124.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 22.3N 125.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 23.4N 126.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 24.3N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 24.6N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 24.3N 129.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0600Z 23.9N 130.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0600Z 22.7N 133.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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