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Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023
900 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023
After a brief hiatus, Adrian appears to once again be strengthening
this evening. An SSMI/S satellite pass at 2239 UTC showed an
apparent dry air intrusion reaching the hurricane's core with a
weakness in the convection to the north. However, recent
geostationary infrared imagery suggests the storm has recovered and
an eye has emerged. Subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB
were T5.0/90 kt and T4.5/77 kt, respectively. Therefore, the
initial intensity has been increased to 80 kt to represent a blend
of these estimates.
Adrian has a short window of conducive environmental and oceanic
conditions that could lead to some additional intensification.
Beginning in about 12 h or so, easterly deep-layer wind shear is
expected to increase while sea-surface temperatures along the
forecast track cool. These conditions should induce a weakening
trend. The NHC intensity prediction is above the all of the model
guidance in the short-term forecast, but follows the consensus aids
beyond 24 h. Adrian is still expected to become a post-tropical
remnant low by day 3.
The initial motion of the hurricane is estimated to be northwestward
or 305/7 kt. The storm is still expected to move generally
west-northwestward during the next few days around a ridge to its
northeast. The weaker, shallower vortex is then forecast to turn
westward in the low-level trade winds. As mentioned in previous
advisories, the track forecast for Adrian has been shifting to the
right and it has done so again for this cycle. The latest official
forecast is closest to the simple consensus aid, TVCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0300Z 16.7N 111.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 17.1N 112.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 17.6N 113.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 18.0N 114.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 18.5N 115.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 18.7N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 18.7N 117.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 04/0000Z 18.7N 118.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/0000Z 18.6N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Bucci
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