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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222352
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Sep 22 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated low
pressure system near the southwest coast of Mexico continues to show
signs of organization, but satellite imagery indicates that a
surface circulation has not yet formed.  Environmental conditions
appear to be favorable for development, and a tropical depression is
expected to form during the next couple of days as the system moves
slowly northwestward near the coast.  Interests in Colima and
Jalisco should monitor the progress of this system for any potential
watches or warnings issued this weekend.  Regardless of development,
very heavy rains are expected over portions of southwestern Mexico
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far
eastern Pacific is associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Some gradual development of this system is possible over the next
few days before the system moves over Central America early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky