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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook (Text)



000
ABNT20 KNHC 202021
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
420 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update discussion on
the remnants of Harvey.

Updated:  An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft
investigating the remnants of Harvey found that the system still
lacks a well-defined center of circulation, and so far there is no
indication of winds to tropical storm force.  Satellite images
indicate that the associated showers and thunderstorms have changed
little in organization since earlier today.  Gradual development of
this system is possible, and it could become a tropical cyclone once
again while it moves west-northwestward across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea, near the northern coast of Honduras, during the next
day or two.  The system is expected to reach Belize or the Yucatan
Peninsula on Tuesday, and then move into the Bay of Campeche by the
middle of the week, where redevelopment appears more likely.
Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Satellite data indicate that a trough of low pressure located a
couple of hundred miles north of the Dominican Republic is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, with some strong
winds on its northeast side.  Environmental conditions are expected
to be unfavorable for development of this system during the next day
or two, but they could become slightly more conducive for
development by midweek when the system is near the northwestern
Bahamas or Florida.  This system is expected to move
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located
about 900 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands is associated
with a trough of low pressure.  This system is currently embedded in
a dry air mass, and upper-level winds are expected to become too
strong to support development in a day or so.  Therefore,
tropical cyclone formation is not likely while this system moves
northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Berg

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Page last modified: Sunday, 20-Aug-2017 20:21:45 UTC