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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook



000
ABNT20 KNHC 271732
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located more than 700 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.

A weak area of low pressure located between the northern coast of
Cuba and Andros Island in the Bahamas continues to produce a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the south
and east of its center.  Upper-level winds are not conducive for
significant development during the next day or so while the low
moves west-northwestward through the Straits of Florida at about 10
mph.  Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive
for some development when the system moves into the eastern Gulf of
Mexico early next week.  Heavy rains are likely to continue over
portions of eastern and central Cuba today.  Gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall are likely over portions of the Bahamas, and will
spread into parts of southern Florida and the Florida Keys by
Sunday.  Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf of
Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance.
The Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission scheduled to investigate this
system today has been canceled.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

A broad area of low pressure located about 140 miles southwest of
Bermuda is producing winds of 30 to 35 mph.  Shower and thunderstorm
activity has not become any better organized during the past few
hours, and significant development of this system is likely to be
slow to occur due the proximity of dry air during the next couple of
days while it moves westward and then west-northwestward at about
10 mph toward the coast of North Carolina.  After that time,
increasing vertical wind shear is expected to make development
unlikely.  For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

A weak trough of low pressure located south of the coast of
southwestern Louisiana is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity over the north-central Gulf of Mexico.
Conditions are not expected to be conducive for development before
this system reaches the coast of Texas on Sunday.  However, heavy
rainfall is possible along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to
southeastern Texas during the next few days.  For additional
information, please see products from your local National Weather
Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

A tropical wave is expected to move offshore of the west coast of
Africa on Tuesday.  Conditions appear favorable for development of
this system later next week while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Brennan