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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook



000
ABNT20 KNHC 272340
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located about several hundred miles east-southeast of
Bermuda.

An area of low pressure centered near the north coast of Central
Cuba is a little better defined this afternoon, and is producing a
large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Any
development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it
interacts with the terrain of Cuba through Sunday. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive when the
low moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.  Reports
from the Cuban Meteorological Service indicate that 3 to 5 inches of
rain have fallen in portions of the island this afternoon.
These rains are likely to continue primarily over portions of
eastern and central Cuba tonight and Sunday.  Gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall are probably occurring over portions of the
Bahamas, and this activity will spread into parts of southern
Florida and the Florida Keys by Sunday.  Interests elsewhere in
Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor
the progress of this disturbance. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate this system on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

The broad area of low pressure located about 150 miles southwest of
Bermuda has become elongated and the associated shower activity
remains poorly organized. Development of this system, if any, is
likely to be slow to occur due to the proximity of dry air during
the next couple of days. This low is forecast to move westward and
then west-northwestward at about 10 mph toward the coast of North
Carolina where conditions are not favorable for development. For
additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

A tropical wave is expected to move offshore of the west coast of
Africa on Tuesday.  Conditions appear favorable for development of
this system later next week while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph
over the tropical eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Avila